A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. They writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
