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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward script. It frequently acts as a type of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your team in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the biggest turnaround is handed the prize. However, it fuels an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or merely the most shocking surprise.

But the latest competition is profoundly different. The pool of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference champions declining and recent also-rans rising collectively. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this turbulent and thrilling year, he's up against several other elite coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open targets consistently. Williams has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Virtually each bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the level of pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current is not a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the leadership aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, he bet on first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still